Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Paris, France?
Why it moved: +18 points at 22:49 UTC, after BBC Sport: Alcaraz beats Fritz to help Jodar reach ATP finals — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 02:46 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 65% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Nov, 23:40 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 69% |
| 6 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 07:17 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 05:10 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Nov, 02:36 UTC | 52% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 53% |
| 6 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 54% |
| 5 Nov, 22:47 UTC | 54% |
| 5 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Nov, 17:28 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 57% |
| 5 Nov, 13:38 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Nov, 21:02 UTC | 47% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 47% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 31% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 Paris Men’s Singles Tournament and No if he does not. The market resolves based on the official ATP results or credible reporting consensus. Readers often mistake the linked story about a different tournament for this event's result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 64%
- No 36%
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