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2026 election odds

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi say about each state's Senate, House and governor races, and about who controls Congress. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Senate control

Democrats: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 100%
Republicans: Polymarket 0% · Kalshi <1%

House control

Democrats: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 100%
Republicans: Polymarket 0% · Kalshi <1%

Biggest moves in 24 hours

Mean change across the exchanges that report one. How the markets did →

VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC

Hover or tap a state to see both exchanges' odds.

Democrats favoured Republicans favoured No race or no market Darker means a bigger lead.

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Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Data: download the odds as JSON or CSV, free to use with a link back.

Governor races, most competitive first

Closest races

  1. Nevada D 87%
  2. Vermont R 88%
  3. Wisconsin D 92%
  4. South Dakota R 96%
  5. Arizona D 96%
  6. Michigan D 97%
  7. Hawaii D 97%
  8. California D 98%

Where the exchanges disagree

  1. Nevada D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 74%
  2. Vermont D: Polymarket 0% · Kalshi 25%
  3. Wisconsin D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 83%
  4. Arizona D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 92%
  5. Michigan D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 94%
  6. Maine D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 96%
Governor races, 2026
StateFavouredPolymarketKalshi
Nevada Democrats favoured (87%) D 100% R 0% D 74% R 27%Aaron Ford v Joe Lombardo
Vermont Republicans favoured (88%) D 0% R 100% D 25% R 76%Amanda Janoo v Phil Scott
Wisconsin Democrats favoured (92%) D 100% R 0% D 83% R <1%David Crowley v Tom Tiffany
South Dakota Republicans favoured (96%) D 3% R 95% D 4% R 97%Dan Ahlers v Larry Rhoden
Arizona Democrats favoured (96%) D 100% R 0% D 92% R <1%Katie Hobbs v Andy Biggs
Michigan Democrats favoured (97%) D 100% R 0% D 94% R 7%Jocelyn Benson v John JamesMike Duggan <1%
Hawaii Democrats favoured (97%) R 0% D 97% R 3%Josh Green v Gary Cordery
California Democrats favoured (98%) no market D 98% R 1%Xavier Becerra v Steve Hilton
Idaho Republicans favoured (98%) R 97% D 3% R 98%Terri Pickens v Brad Little
Maine Democrats favoured (98%) D 100% R 0% D 96% R 5%Hannah Pingree v Robert CharlesRick Bennett 1%
New York Democrats favoured (98%) D 100% R 0% D 96% R 4%Kathy Hochul v Bruce Blakeman
Rhode Island Democrats favoured (98%) D 100% D 97% R <1%Helena Foulkes v Aaron GuckianKen Block 4%
Colorado Democrats favoured (98%) D 100% R 0% D 97% R 1%Phil Weiser v Victor Marx
Minnesota Democrats favoured (98%) D 100% R 0% D 97% R 4%Amy Klobuchar v Lisa Demuth
Massachusetts Democrats favoured (99%) D 100% R 0% D 97% R 3%Maura Healey v Mike Minogue
Wyoming Republicans favoured (99%) R 100% D 2% R 98%Kenneth Casner v Eric Barlow
Oklahoma Republicans favoured (99%) D 0% R 100% D 1% R 98%Cyndi Munson v Mike Mazzei
Kansas Democrats favoured (99%) D 99% R <1% no market
Pennsylvania Democrats favoured (99%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 2%Josh Shapiro v Stacy Garrity
Connecticut Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R <1%Ned Lamont v Ryan Fazio
Florida Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% D <1% R 99%David Jolly v Byron Donalds
Maryland Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 1%Wes Moore v Dan Cox
Illinois Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R 2%JB Pritzker v Darren Bailey
South Carolina Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% D 2% R 100%Jermaine Johnson v Alan Wilson
Texas Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Gina Hinojosa v Greg Abbott
Georgia Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Keisha Lance Bottoms v Rick Jackson
Iowa Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Rob Sand v Zach Lahn
Ohio Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Amy Acton v Vivek Ramaswamy
Tennessee Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% D <1% R 100%Jerri Green v Marsha BlackburnDavid Hatley 1%
Alabama Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% D <1% R 100%Doug Jones v Tommy Tuberville
Arkansas Republicans favoured (100%) R 100% D 1% R 100%Fred Love v Sarah Huckabee Sanders
New Mexico Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R 6%Deb Haaland v Greggory D. Hull
Oregon Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Tina Kotek v Christine Drazan
Nebraska Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% no market
New Hampshire Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% no market

"Average" is the plain mean of the exchanges that price a party; where only one does, that exchange's price is used. Each party's price comes from its own market, so a race's two sides need not add to exactly 100%, and independents are listed beside the table row rather than on the map. On the House view, a district's two sides are scaled to add to 100% before the seats are added up, a district is a toss-up when neither party is above 60%, and the totals treat districts as independent, so they are a tally of prices and not a forecast of the chamber. Some state markets trade very little, so a price can sit still for hours. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Updated .