US Offered To Sell Iran Uranium For Civilian Programme
US ambassador Mike Waltz states Washington proposed supplying uranium to Tehran, which refused the arrangement for its civilian nuclear program.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 1 Nov, 06:01 UTC | 10% |
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| 31 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 7% |
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| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 10% |
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| 20 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 10% |
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| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 8% |
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| 18 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 14:57 UTC | 9% |
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| 8 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 11% |
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| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 14% |
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| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 16% |
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| 28 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 12% |
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| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Sept, 07:15 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 12% |
| 17 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 13% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 27 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 27 September at 17:42 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? — the market puts it at 10%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Iran must publicly pledge to stop all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for a Yes outcome. This pledge can be unilateral or part of any agreement, and it counts even if the deal is not finalized or only limits enrichment levels. Readers often mistake partial caps on enrichment for a full end to enrichment, which does not qualify.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 11%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new nuclear deal with Iran before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake general economic resilience for an actual agreement on the nuclear deal.
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Nov 2026. Iran must publicly agree to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile or any part of it to an entity outside Iran and its influence by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake a deal that merely limits enrichment levels for one that surrenders the stockpile, which does not count toward a Yes resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? 10% +3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 11% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? No 6d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Mike Waltz
- United States
- Iran