Turkey Arrests Ex-Minister and Market Chief in Fund Scandal Probe

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 31 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 31 October at 21:50 UTC; News Feed followed 79h 10m later. The most recent article, from Deutsche Welle, appeared on 6 November at 10:38 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Deutsche Welle.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — the market puts it at 50%, closing 7 May 2030. The market resolves to Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wins the next Turkish presidential election. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific election. Readers often mistake the linked story about comedian Deniz Goktas for a factor in the outcome, but only the official election result matters.
• Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — the market puts it at 63%, closing 7 May 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wins the first round of the next Turkish presidential election. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific round. Readers often mistake the final winner of the entire election process for the person who must win just the first round.
• Erdoğan out by end of 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $98 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stops being President of Turkey at any point before the deadline. An official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but only official government statements or a consensus of credible reporting count as valid evidence.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.