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Australia's 2018 ball-tampering scandal overshadows South Africa series victory

The 2018 Test series result was eclipsed by the sandpaper scandal involving Steve Smith and David Warner.

2 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 5 Oct 2026 · updated 30d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will South Africa win?
0%50%100%0%7 Oct, 05:30 UTCnowThe Guardian Sport: Australia stick to familiar formula in South Africa as they seek to bury demons of 2018 | Geoff Lemon · 8 Oct, 01:40 UTCSkySports: 'Sandpapergate' Q&A: The 2018 ball-tampering scandal explained · 8 Oct, 05:26 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 2 more published before price tracking began

Price data
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The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 5 Oct 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 5 October at 14:00 UTC; SkySports followed 63h 26m later. The most recent article, from SkySports, appeared on 8 October at 05:26 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), SkySports.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will South Africa win? — resolved “No” on 13 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if South Africa wins the scheduled Test match against Australia on October 9, 2026. It resolves to No if Australia wins or if the match ends in a draw. Readers often mistake the linked news story about the 2018 scandal for the actual event date.
  • Draw/Tie — resolved “No” on 13 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if the South Africa vs Australia Test series ends in a draw or tie. The outcome is No if either team wins the series. Readers often mistake the start date of the first match for the resolution deadline, but the market resolves only after the entire series concludes.
  • South Australia Redbacks — resolved “Yes” on 10 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the South Australia Redbacks win their Sheffield Shield cricket match against Victoria. The result depends on the official outcome of that specific game scheduled for October 6, 2026. Readers often mistake this for a bet on the upcoming Test series between South Africa and Australia.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will South Africa win? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. The Guardian SportSandpaper made Australia the story in 2018 while South Africa’s achievement faded into irrelevance—
  2. The Guardian SportWhat’s left to say about Australia’s ball-tampering? The answer is everything | Geoff Lemon—
  3. The Guardian SportAustralia stick to familiar formula in South Africa as they seek to bury demons of 2018 | Geoff Lemon45%
  4. SkySports'Sandpapergate' Q&A: The 2018 ball-tampering scandal explained45%
  5. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Australia stick to familiar formula in South Africa as they seek to bury demons of 2018 | Geoff Lemon The Guardian Sport ·
  2. What’s left to say about Australia’s ball-tampering? The answer is everything | Geoff Lemon The Guardian Sport ·
  3. Sandpaper made Australia the story in 2018 while South Africa’s achievement faded into irrelevance The Guardian Sport ·
  4. 'Sandpapergate' Q&A: The 2018 ball-tampering scandal explained SkySports

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Will South Africa win? No 25d ago

    The market favoured No at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Draw/Tie No 25d ago

    The market favoured No at 63% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved South Australia Redbacks Yes 28d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 80% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

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