South Australia Redbacks
The market favoured Yes at 80% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$41k
Liquidity$41k
Resolved13 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 99% |
| 10 Oct, 00:19 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 23:59 UTC | 94% |
| 9 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 94% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 95% |
| 9 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 94% |
| 9 Oct, 16:09 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 94% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 93% |
| 9 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 88% |
| 9 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 07:36 UTC | 87% |
| 9 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 06:38 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 83% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 87% |
| 9 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 01:36 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 83% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 81% |
| 9 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 88% |
| 8 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 75% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 81% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 79% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 89% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 11:25 UTC | 92% |
| 8 Oct, 10:45 UTC | 89% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 87% |
| 8 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 70% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 75% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 74% |
| 8 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 61% |
| 8 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 52% |
| 8 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 60% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 53% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 46% |
| 8 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 42% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 48% |
| 7 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 55% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 62% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 63% |
| 6 Oct, 21:28 UTC | 64% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the South Australia Redbacks win their Sheffield Shield cricket match against Victoria. The result depends on the official outcome of that specific game scheduled for October 6, 2026. Readers often mistake this for a bet on the upcoming Test series between South Africa and Australia.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%