South Africa host Australia in first Test since Sandpapergate scandal

The top-ranked teams meet in Durban for the opening match of a three-Test series.

4 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 6 Oct 2026 · updated 29d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Draw/Tie

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	1%
13 Oct, 11:27 UTC	9%
13 Oct, 10:51 UTC	18%
13 Oct, 10:08 UTC	14%
13 Oct, 09:53 UTC	14%
13 Oct, 09:26 UTC	30%
13 Oct, 08:53 UTC	26%
13 Oct, 08:20 UTC	24%
13 Oct, 07:55 UTC	17%
13 Oct, 07:28 UTC	14%
13 Oct, 06:21 UTC	12%
13 Oct, 05:48 UTC	14%
13 Oct, 05:22 UTC	13%
13 Oct, 04:48 UTC	13%
13 Oct, 04:01 UTC	14%
13 Oct, 03:48 UTC	14%
13 Oct, 02:27 UTC	14%
13 Oct, 01:48 UTC	13%
13 Oct, 01:08 UTC	15%
13 Oct, 00:35 UTC	13%
13 Oct, 00:21 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 23:14 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 22:54 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 22:27 UTC	13%
12 Oct, 21:40 UTC	15%
12 Oct, 21:26 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 20:43 UTC	13%
12 Oct, 20:29 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 19:01 UTC	15%
12 Oct, 18:40 UTC	13%
12 Oct, 17:49 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 17:12 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 16:45 UTC	16%
12 Oct, 16:19 UTC	16%
12 Oct, 15:47 UTC	16%
12 Oct, 15:27 UTC	14%
12 Oct, 14:48 UTC	31%
12 Oct, 14:27 UTC	34%
12 Oct, 13:55 UTC	34%
12 Oct, 13:22 UTC	28%
12 Oct, 12:56 UTC	35%
12 Oct, 12:24 UTC	38%
12 Oct, 11:58 UTC	40%
12 Oct, 11:00 UTC	35%
12 Oct, 10:41 UTC	33%
12 Oct, 09:53 UTC	33%
12 Oct, 09:27 UTC	32%
12 Oct, 08:34 UTC	31%
12 Oct, 08:15 UTC	28%
12 Oct, 07:53 UTC	28%
12 Oct, 07:16 UTC	31%
12 Oct, 06:32 UTC	32%
12 Oct, 05:37 UTC	33%
12 Oct, 04:48 UTC	34%
12 Oct, 04:29 UTC	32%
12 Oct, 02:09 UTC	34%
12 Oct, 01:31 UTC	33%
12 Oct, 00:53 UTC	32%
12 Oct, 00:21 UTC	27%
11 Oct, 23:56 UTC	32%
11 Oct, 23:11 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 22:27 UTC	32%
11 Oct, 21:56 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 20:40 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 20:09 UTC	32%
11 Oct, 19:43 UTC	28%
11 Oct, 19:24 UTC	30%
11 Oct, 18:17 UTC	29%
11 Oct, 17:39 UTC	29%
11 Oct, 16:23 UTC	32%
11 Oct, 15:58 UTC	32%
11 Oct, 14:42 UTC	24%
11 Oct, 14:29 UTC	30%
11 Oct, 13:51 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 12:55 UTC	21%
11 Oct, 12:22 UTC	16%
11 Oct, 11:20 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 10:48 UTC	36%
11 Oct, 10:27 UTC	31%
11 Oct, 09:59 UTC	28%
11 Oct, 09:27 UTC	27%
11 Oct, 08:50 UTC	41%
11 Oct, 08:25 UTC	44%
11 Oct, 07:54 UTC	35%
11 Oct, 07:26 UTC	36%
11 Oct, 06:07 UTC	37%
11 Oct, 05:55 UTC	37%
11 Oct, 05:23 UTC	37%
11 Oct, 04:47 UTC	35%
11 Oct, 03:00 UTC	38%
11 Oct, 02:54 UTC	35%
11 Oct, 02:11 UTC	38%
11 Oct, 01:34 UTC	36%
11 Oct, 01:10 UTC	34%
11 Oct, 00:51 UTC	36%
11 Oct, 00:20 UTC	35%
10 Oct, 23:36 UTC	36%
10 Oct, 23:04 UTC	38%
10 Oct, 21:54 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 21:06 UTC	36%
10 Oct, 20:28 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 19:30 UTC	35%
10 Oct, 19:11 UTC	42%
10 Oct, 18:14 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 17:55 UTC	40%
10 Oct, 17:15 UTC	45%
10 Oct, 16:54 UTC	41%
10 Oct, 16:22 UTC	33%
10 Oct, 15:55 UTC	31%
10 Oct, 15:28 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 14:54 UTC	35%
10 Oct, 14:27 UTC	26%
10 Oct, 13:52 UTC	29%
10 Oct, 13:28 UTC	33%
10 Oct, 12:34 UTC	33%
10 Oct, 12:27 UTC	30%
10 Oct, 11:54 UTC	24%
10 Oct, 11:11 UTC	20%
10 Oct, 10:51 UTC	23%
10 Oct, 10:24 UTC	13%
10 Oct, 09:55 UTC	16%
10 Oct, 09:28 UTC	12%
10 Oct, 08:50 UTC	11%
10 Oct, 08:24 UTC	10%
10 Oct, 07:57 UTC	7%
10 Oct, 07:24 UTC	9%
10 Oct, 06:57 UTC	7%
10 Oct, 06:26 UTC	6%
10 Oct, 05:40 UTC	8%
10 Oct, 04:34 UTC	9%
10 Oct, 04:27 UTC	8%
10 Oct, 03:47 UTC	7%
10 Oct, 03:20 UTC	9%
10 Oct, 02:46 UTC	9%
10 Oct, 01:06 UTC	8%
10 Oct, 00:59 UTC	8%
10 Oct, 00:19 UTC	6%
9 Oct, 23:45 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 22:52 UTC	8%
9 Oct, 21:30 UTC	8%
9 Oct, 21:09 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 20:27 UTC	8%
9 Oct, 19:58 UTC	8%
9 Oct, 18:42 UTC	6%
9 Oct, 18:00 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 16:16 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 15:48 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 15:14 UTC	8%
9 Oct, 14:52 UTC	5%
9 Oct, 13:52 UTC	4%
9 Oct, 13:28 UTC	4%
9 Oct, 12:52 UTC	4%
9 Oct, 12:16 UTC	3%
9 Oct, 11:55 UTC	4%
9 Oct, 11:08 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 10:54 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 09:55 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 09:27 UTC	7%
9 Oct, 08:55 UTC	6%
9 Oct, 08:15 UTC	10%
9 Oct, 07:49 UTC	11%
9 Oct, 07:23 UTC	9%
8 Oct, 17:09 UTC	9%
8 Oct, 16:46 UTC	8%
8 Oct, 15:04 UTC	9%
8 Oct, 13:43 UTC	10%
8 Oct, 12:45 UTC	8%
8 Oct, 06:18 UTC	14%
8 Oct, 05:39 UTC	7%
8 Oct, 05:03 UTC	9%
8 Oct, 04:44 UTC	15%
8 Oct, 01:22 UTC	9%
7 Oct, 21:37 UTC	12%
6 Oct, 21:27 UTC	0%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 6 Oct 2026. SkySports published first, on 6 October at 06:04 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 39h 04m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 9 October at 02:53 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), SkySports, BBC Sport, Times of India.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Draw/Tie — resolved “No” on 13 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if the South Africa vs Australia Test series ends in a draw or tie. The outcome is No if either team wins the series. Readers often mistake the start date of the first match for the resolution deadline, but the market resolves only after the entire series concludes.
Bangladesh — resolved “No” on 11 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Bangladesh wins the women's ODI cricket match originally scheduled for October 10, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this question about a women's cricket match in Australia for the linked story about men's Test cricket between South Africa and Australia.
South Australia Redbacks — resolved “Yes” on 10 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the South Australia Redbacks win their Sheffield Shield cricket match against Victoria. The result depends on the official outcome of that specific game scheduled for October 6, 2026. Readers often mistake this for a bet on the upcoming Test series between South Africa and Australia.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Draw/Tie at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

6 Oct, 06:04SkySports 'Sandpapergate’ adds to intrigue of Australia Test tour of South Africa—
7 Oct, 21:09Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera South Africa host Australia who battle more than ‘Sandpapergate’ memories0%
9 Oct, 00:00BBC Sport Australia's first Test in South Africa since sandpapergate - scorecard9%▲9 points since the previous source
9 Oct, 02:53Times of India 'Our cameras will be sharp': Broadcaster takes a dig at Australia over Sandpapergate9%
13 Oct, 12:37Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Resolved Draw/Tie No 25d ago
The market favoured No at 63% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved Bangladesh No 27d ago
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved South Australia Redbacks Yes 28d ago
The market favoured Yes at 80% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong

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