Draw/Tie
The market favoured No at 63% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$264k
Total volume$538k
Liquidity$538k
Resolved16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 13 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 15% |
| 13 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 15% |
| 12 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 19:01 UTC | 15% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 40% |
| 12 Oct, 11:00 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Oct, 10:41 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 27% |
| 11 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 33% |
| 11 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 33% |
| 11 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 33% |
| 11 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 28% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 30% |
| 11 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 29% |
| 11 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 29% |
| 11 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 30% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 33% |
| 11 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 21% |
| 11 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 33% |
| 11 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 28% |
| 11 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 27% |
| 11 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 41% |
| 11 Oct, 08:25 UTC | 44% |
| 11 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 35% |
| 11 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Oct, 04:47 UTC | 35% |
| 11 Oct, 03:00 UTC | 38% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 35% |
| 11 Oct, 02:11 UTC | 38% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 01:10 UTC | 34% |
| 11 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 35% |
| 10 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 36% |
| 10 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 38% |
| 10 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 36% |
| 10 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 35% |
| 10 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 42% |
| 10 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 17:15 UTC | 45% |
| 10 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 41% |
| 10 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 35% |
| 10 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 20% |
| 10 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 13% |
| 10 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 12% |
| 10 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 11% |
| 10 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 10% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 8% |
| 10 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 8% |
| 10 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 8% |
| 10 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 8% |
| 10 Oct, 00:19 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 16:16 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 11:08 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 07:23 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 12% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the South Africa vs Australia Test series ends in a draw or tie. The outcome is No if either team wins the series. Readers often mistake the start date of the first match for the resolution deadline, but the market resolves only after the entire series concludes.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%