Olise late strike gives France win over Belgium as Italy rout Turkey
Michael Olise scores an 88th-minute winner for France against Belgium, while Italy defeat Turkey 4-1 in the Nations League.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, 33 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 94% |
| 5 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 58% |
| 5 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 67% |
| 5 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Oct, 04:38 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Oct, 19:16 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 05:12 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 66% |
| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 61% |
| 29 Sept, 21:40 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 89% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Sept, 17:49 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 81% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch France respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 28 September at 21:04 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 33 min later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 29 September at 10:29 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Guardian Sport (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- France — resolved “Yes” on 5 Oct 2026. France wins if it scores more goals than Belgium after 90 minutes of play and added stoppage time. The result excludes any extra time or penalty shootouts that might follow. Readers often mistake the final score after penalties for the winning margin, but only the score at the end of regulation time counts.
- Will Belgium win on 2026-10-05? — resolved “No” on 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Belgium wins the match scheduled for October 5, 2026, and to "No" otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle for the deadline, but the outcome is determined by the official statistics recognized by the governing body.
- France — resolved “No” on 2 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if France wins the UEFA Nations League match against Italy after 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. It resolves to No if France does not win within that timeframe. Readers often mistakenly believe that extra time or penalty shootouts count toward the result.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on France at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraOlise scores late to grab France 1-0 Nations League win at Belgium81%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesNations League: Italy rebound in Turkey as France snatch late win in Belgium81%
- The Guardian SportNations League: Olise’s late stunner leads France past Belgium, Italy rout Turkey81%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesNations League: Promising France defeat Belgium thanks to Olise81%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesOlise wonder strike gives Zidane's France win in Belgium63%▼18 points since the previous source
- Market resolved: Yes
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Nations League: Olise’s late stunner leads France past Belgium, Italy rout Turkey The Guardian Sport ·
- Olise scores late to grab France 1-0 Nations League win at Belgium Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Olise wonder strike gives Zidane's France win in Belgium France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Nations League: Promising France defeat Belgium thanks to Olise France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Nations League: Italy rebound in Turkey as France snatch late win in Belgium France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved France Yes 32d ago
The market favoured Yes at 65% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Belgium win on 2026-10-05? No 32d ago
The market favoured No at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved France No 35d ago
The market favoured Yes at 69% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Michael Olise
- France
- Belgium
- Italy
- Turkey
- Zinedine Zidane