France
Implied probability 3%−66
24-hour volume$4.2M
Total volume$5.2M
Liquidity$5.2M
Resolves4 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if France wins the UEFA Nations League match against Italy after 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. It resolves to No if France does not win within that timeframe. Readers often mistakenly believe that extra time or penalty shootouts count toward the result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%