Will Belgium win on 2026-10-05?
The market favoured No at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$556k
Total volume$561k
Liquidity$353k
Resolved5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 22:09 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 06:17 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 14% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Belgium wins the match scheduled for October 5, 2026, and to "No" otherwise. The result depends solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Readers often mistake the final whistle for the deadline, but the outcome is determined by the official statistics recognized by the governing body.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →