Latvian PM Kulbergs' pro-Ukraine party wins parliamentary election
Exit polls show the United List securing 35% of the vote, prompting President Zelensky to congratulate Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs on a historic victory.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 94% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch United List respond.
The story so far
7 publishers have covered this in 14 articles since 1 Oct 2026. Deutsche Welle published first, on 1 October at 17:57 UTC; kyivindependent.com followed 21h 41m later. The most recent article, from kyivindependent.com, appeared on 4 October at 15:57 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), Deutsche Welle, kyivindependent.com, South China Morning Post, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- United List — resolved “Yes” on 4 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the United List party wins the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election. It resolves to No if any other party wins. Readers often mistake the linked news story about current voting trends for the final election result.
- Jūlija Stepaņenko — the market puts it at 1%, closing 3 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jūlija Stepaņenko becomes Prime Minister of Latvia after the 2026 parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before October 3, 2027. It resolves to No if she does not hold the office by that deadline or fails to meet the requirements. Readers often mistake the date of the election for the resolution deadline.
- At least 46% — resolved “Yes” on 5 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Student List - Students Win party receives at least 46% of valid votes in the first non-preliminary nationwide general report from RIK for the October 25, 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The outcome is No if that share falls below 46%. Readers often mistake exit polls or preliminary results for the final count, but only the specified official report determines the resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on United List at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Deutsche WelleOn October 3, Latvians will elect a new parliament ― with Russia looming large over the campaign94%
- kyivindependent.comLatvia votes with Russia threat looming large94%
- Deutsche WelleLatvia votes in parliamentary election amid rising costs95%▲1 points since the previous source
- South China Morning PostLatvia holds election as concerns over Russia, inflation dominate95%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPolls open in Latvia against backdrop of perceived Russia threat95%
- ABC NewsLatvians vote for a new parliament as fears of Russian hybrid attacks loom95%
- Deutsche WelleLatvia: Ruling party leads in exit polls amid populist gains99%▲4 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleLatvia election: Pro-Ukraine PM Kulbergs set to retain power after historic victory for his United List party99%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesLatvia exit polls put PM's pro-Ukraine party ahead but coalition partners stumble99%
- South China Morning PostLatvian leader poised for big win in election shadowed by Putin99%
Show 4 later sources
- kyivindependent.comExit polls show pro-Ukraine United List party leading Latvian parliamentary elections as counting begins99%
- Latest articlesLatvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs wins election held under shadow of Ukraine war99%
- ABC NewsPro-Ukraine governing coalition wins 35% in Latvian election99%
- kyivindependent.comLatvia's pro-Ukraine party wins parliamentary election by wide margin99%
- Market resolved: Yes
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Pro-Ukraine governing coalition wins 35% in Latvian election ABC News ·
- Latvians vote for a new parliament as fears of Russian hybrid attacks loom ABC News ·
- Polls open in Latvia against backdrop of perceived Russia threat Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Latvia's pro-Ukraine party wins parliamentary election by wide margin kyivindependent.com
- Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs wins election held under shadow of Ukraine war Latest articles
- Exit polls show pro-Ukraine United List party leading Latvian parliamentary elections as counting begins kyivindependent.com
Show 8 more sources
- Latvian leader poised for big win in election shadowed by Putin South China Morning Post
- Latvia exit polls put PM's pro-Ukraine party ahead but coalition partners stumble France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Latvia election: Pro-Ukraine PM Kulbergs set to retain power after historic victory for his United List party Deutsche Welle
- Latvia: Ruling party leads in exit polls amid populist gains Deutsche Welle
- Latvia holds election as concerns over Russia, inflation dominate South China Morning Post
- Latvia votes in parliamentary election amid rising costs Deutsche Welle
- Latvia votes with Russia threat looming large kyivindependent.com
- On October 3, Latvians will elect a new parliament ― with Russia looming large over the campaign Deutsche Welle
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved United List Yes 34d ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Jūlija Stepaņenko 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved At least 46% Yes 34h ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Andris Kulbergs
- United List
- Latvia
- Volodymyr Zelensky