United List
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$696
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved31 Dec 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 94% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United List party wins the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election. It resolves to No if any other party wins. Readers often mistake the linked news story about current voting trends for the final election result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%