Hurricane Isaias Intensifies as Judge Orders Pike Execution Evidence Preserved
Isaias strengthens into a hurricane while a judge mandates the preservation of evidence from Christa Pike's botched execution.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 87% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 8 Oct 2026. NPR World published first, on 8 October at 11:35 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Isaias — resolved “Yes” on 12 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a storm named Isaias becomes a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean between May 15, 2026, and December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if it does not meet this criteria within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the formation of a tropical storm for the resolution condition, but the system requires the storm to reach hurricane status.
- Isaias — resolved “Yes” on 8 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if a storm named Isaias becomes the first hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15 and December 1, 2026. The resolution depends on the storm reaching hurricane status, not just forming as a tropical storm. Readers often mistake the formation date for the resolution deadline, but the key is when it achieves hurricane classification within the specified timeframe.
- Before Dec 31, 2026 — the market puts it at 4%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a named storm called Isaias makes landfall or intersects Alabama between now and December 31, 2026, with sustained winds of at least 74 mph reported in consecutive National Hurricane Center advisories. The two advisories must be issued no more than 12 hours apart and include latitude and longitude coordinates rounded to the nearest 0.1 degree.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Isaias Yes 26d ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Isaias Yes 29d ago
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Dec 31, 2026 4%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Isaias
- Pike