Isaias
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolved12 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a storm named Isaias becomes a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean between May 15, 2026, and December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if it does not meet this criteria within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the formation of a tropical storm for the resolution condition, but the system requires the storm to reach hurricane status.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%