Isaias
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$43k
Liquidity$43k
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 80% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if a storm named Isaias becomes the first hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15 and December 1, 2026. The resolution depends on the storm reaching hurricane status, not just forming as a tropical storm. Readers often mistake the formation date for the resolution deadline, but the key is when it achieves hurricane classification within the specified timeframe.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%