Hong Kong Records Warmest October in 142 Years Amid El Nino and Weak Monsoon
El Nino, a weak monsoon, and an anticyclone drove Hong Kong's mean maximum temperature to 30.5 degrees Celsius.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 03:57 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 52% |
| 2 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 22:39 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Nov, 19:09 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 15:31 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 15:16 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 12:16 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 09:42 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 09:22 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 42% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 30 Oct 2026. Scientific American published first, on 30 October at 15:45 UTC; News - South China Morning Post followed 41h 31m later. The most recent article, from News - South China Morning Post, appeared on 1 November at 09:15 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Scientific American, News - South China Morning Post.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2? — resolved “No” on 3 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on November 2, 2026. 'Yes' requires that specific daily maximum to reach exactly 30°C, while 'No' covers all other values. Readers often mistake the linked story about October's record for the relevant data or ignore the strict cutoff of the initial publication date.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 1? — resolved “No” on 2 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on November 1, 2026. For the 'Yes' outcome, that specific daily maximum must be exactly 26°C; for 'No', it must be any other value. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which is triggered either when the data is published or seven days after the observation date, whichever comes first.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 2? — resolved “No” on 3 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on November 2, 2026. You must check the official Daily Extract for the finalized minimum value in Celsius to determine if it is exactly 26°C. Readers often mistake the linked news story about October's warmth for the relevant data, but only the specific daily minimum on November 2 counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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In this story
- Hong Kong Observatory
- El Nino