Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 2?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$6k
Resolved2 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 22:53 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 58% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 59% |
| 1 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 57% |
| 1 Nov, 15:16 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 13:54 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 09:22 UTC | 44% |
| 31 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 39% |
What counts
The market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on November 2, 2026. You must check the official Daily Extract for the finalized minimum value in Celsius to determine if it is exactly 26°C. Readers often mistake the linked news story about October's warmth for the relevant data, but only the specific daily minimum on November 2 counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →