Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$17k
Resolved2 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 03:57 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 52% |
| 2 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 22:39 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 20:29 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Nov, 19:09 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Nov, 16:51 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 15:31 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 15:16 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 12:16 UTC | 43% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 09:42 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 09:22 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 42% |
What counts
The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on November 2, 2026. 'Yes' requires that specific daily maximum to reach exactly 30°C, while 'No' covers all other values. Readers often mistake the linked story about October's record for the relevant data or ignore the strict cutoff of the initial publication date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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