Eli Lilly Raises Sales Outlook as Zepbound Demand Surges
The drugmaker boosted its annual revenue forecast to $91 billion–$92 billion, citing strong sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Oct, 13:11 UTC | 13% |
| 27 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 19:31 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 9% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 16% |
| 16 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 10% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 11% |
| 5 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 20% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 17% |
| 28 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 05:29 UTC | 7% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Eli Lilly respond.
The story so far
7 publishers have covered this in 11 articles since 28 Oct 2026. STAT published first, on 28 October at 10:45 UTC; All Content from Business Insider followed 0 min later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 29 October at 14:12 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), CNBC (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), STAT, All Content from Business Insider, Quartz, MarketWatch.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Eli Lilly — the market puts it at 9%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the U.S. federal government takes any financial stake in Eli Lilly before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Novo Nordisk for a relevant event, but only actions by the U.S. federal government regarding Eli Lilly count.
- Omvoh — resolved “No” on 29 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if an Eli Lilly representative mentions Omvoh during the next live earnings call or official broadcast, including the question-and-answer session. The outcome is No if they do not mention it in that specific setting. Readers often mistake any general press release or social media post for a valid source, but only the live call or official broadcast counts.
- Above 110 — the market puts it at 99%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the Carbon Arc Eli Lilly Credit Card Spend for October 2026 exceeds 110. It resolves to No if that spend is 110 or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about sales outlooks as the deciding factor, but only the specific credit card spend data matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Eli Lilly at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- STATSTAT+: Lilly says ‘triple-G’ drug beats Novo’s Ozempic in diabetes study13%
- All Content from Business InsiderBye bye Ozempic: Eli Lilly says its new drug retatrutide more than doubles weight loss13%
- STATSTAT+: Lilly’s triple-G drug beats Ozempic in head-to-head study13%
- QuartzLilly's next-gen weight loss drug more than doubled Novo Nordisk's in trial13%
- QuartzLillys Next-Gen-Gewichtsverlustmedikament übertraf das von Novo Nordisk im Versuch mehr als doppelt.13%
- News FeedEli Lilly profits surge on demand for weight-loss drugs9%▼4 points since the previous source
- All Content from Business InsiderHealthcare's AI race heats up9%
- MarketWatchLilly raises outlook for third time this year as Zepbound sales soar9%
- CNBCEli Lilly blows past estimates, hikes sales outlook as Zepbound and Mounjaro demand surge again9%
- QuartzEli Lilly raised its outlook for a third time this year thanks to soaring Zepbound sales9%
- Bloomberg MarketsEli Lilly Shares Surge on Raised Sales Forecast9%
- Current odds9%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Eli Lilly Shares Surge on Raised Sales Forecast Bloomberg Markets ·
- Eli Lilly blows past estimates, hikes sales outlook as Zepbound and Mounjaro demand surge again CNBC ·
- Eli Lilly profits surge on demand for weight-loss drugs News Feed ·
- Eli Lilly raised its outlook for a third time this year thanks to soaring Zepbound sales Quartz
- Lilly raises outlook for third time this year as Zepbound sales soar MarketWatch
- Healthcare's AI race heats up All Content from Business Insider
Show 5 more sources
- Lillys Next-Gen-Gewichtsverlustmedikament übertraf das von Novo Nordisk im Versuch mehr als doppelt. Quartz
- Lilly's next-gen weight loss drug more than doubled Novo Nordisk's in trial Quartz
- STAT+: Lilly’s triple-G drug beats Ozempic in head-to-head study STAT
- Bye bye Ozempic: Eli Lilly says its new drug retatrutide more than doubles weight loss All Content from Business Insider
- STAT+: Lilly says ‘triple-G’ drug beats Novo’s Ozempic in diabetes study STAT
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Eli Lilly 9%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Omvoh No 9d ago
The market favoured Yes at 77% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 110 99%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Eli Lilly
- Novo Nordisk