California Braces for Extreme Heat, Flooding and Kelvin Wave Impacts

The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 11 articles since 30 Sept 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 30 September at 11:00 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 7h 32m later. The most recent article, from Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, appeared on 10 October at 12:20 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Climate (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, Scientific American.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Before 2028 — the market puts it at 12%, closing 31 Dec 2028. The outcome is Yes if a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurs in California or its territorial waters before December 31, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about sea level rise for the resolution criteria, but only earthquakes count.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 4%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake occurs in California or its territorial waters before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such earthquake happens within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the year rather than the start of 2027.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.