Before 2027
Implied probability 5%+1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$486k
Liquidity$486k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 5% |
| 10 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 23:59 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 21:36 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 01:30 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 02:37 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake occurs in California or its territorial waters before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such earthquake happens within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the year rather than the start of 2027.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%