Before 2028
Implied probability 12%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves31 Dec 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 12% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 16% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occurs in California or its territorial waters before December 31, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about sea level rise for the resolution criteria, but only earthquakes count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%