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Bulgarian Presidential Election Triggers Run-Off Amid Record Low Turnout

Record low voter turnout in Bulgaria's presidential election forces a November 1 run-off between pro-Western candidate Andrey Gyurov and incumbent Rumen Radev.

4 publishers · 5 articles · first seen 25 Oct 2026 · updated 12d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by ABC News, 1h 26m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
0%50%100%0%24 Oct, 20:19 UTCnowAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Bulgaria election heads to a run-off amid low voter turnout · 25 Oct, 22:57 UTCABC News: Polls open for presidential election in Bulgaria dominated by economic hardship and Ukraine war · 25 Oct, 05:52 UTCNews - South China Morning Post: Presidential race in Bulgaria heads to run-off after record low turnout · 25 Oct, 20:03 UTCDeutsche Welle: Bulgaria holds presidential elections amid divisions over Ukraine war · 25 Oct, 07:19 UTCDeutsche Welle: In Bulgaria, record low voter turnout triggers a November 1 presidential run-off in a poll colored by divisions over Ukraine war · 25 Oct, 07:19 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
26 Oct, 08:58 UTC0%
26 Oct, 06:58 UTC0%
25 Oct, 20:19 UTC0%
24 Oct, 20:19 UTC4%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 25 Oct 2026. ABC News published first, on 25 October at 05:52 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 1h 27m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 25 October at 22:57 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Deutsche Welle, News - South China Morning Post.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election? — resolved “No” on 26 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if a candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round and voter turnout exceeds half of registered voters. The outcome is No if no candidate meets these requirements or if the result is not known by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
  • Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%? — resolved “No” on 27 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome requires Andrey Gyurov to finish first in the first round with a margin of at least 30 percentage points over the second-place candidate, based on valid votes. The No outcome applies if his lead is less than 30% or if he does not win the first round.
  • Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? — resolved “Yes” on 2 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Iliana Iotova wins the next Bulgarian presidential election, including any second round. The No outcome applies if she does not win that election. Readers often mistake the December 31, 2027 deadline for the end of voting rather than the final date for determining the result.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. ABC NewsPolls open for presidential election in Bulgaria dominated by economic hardship and Ukraine war4%
  2. Deutsche WelleBulgaria holds presidential elections amid divisions over Ukraine war4%
  3. Deutsche WelleIn Bulgaria, record low voter turnout triggers a November 1 presidential run-off in a poll colored by divisions over Ukraine war4%
  4. News - South China Morning PostPresidential race in Bulgaria heads to run-off after record low turnout4%
  5. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraBulgaria election heads to a run-off amid low voter turnout0%▼3 points since the previous source
  6. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Bulgaria election heads to a run-off amid low voter turnout Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  2. Polls open for presidential election in Bulgaria dominated by economic hardship and Ukraine war ABC News ·
  3. Presidential race in Bulgaria heads to run-off after record low turnout News - South China Morning Post
  4. Bulgaria holds presidential elections amid divisions over Ukraine war Deutsche Welle
  5. In Bulgaria, record low voter turnout triggers a November 1 presidential run-off in a poll colored by divisions over Ukraine war Deutsche Welle

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election? No 12d ago

    The market favoured No at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%? No 11d ago
    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 5d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 68% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

In this story

  • Bulgaria
  • Andrey Gyurov
  • Rumen Radev
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