Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
The market favoured No at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$45k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 0% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 4% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round and voter turnout exceeds half of registered voters. The outcome is No if no candidate meets these requirements or if the result is not known by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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