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Argentina's Poverty Rate Climbs to 32 Percent Under Milei Amid Economic Pain

Official data shows Argentina's poverty rate rose to 32.3 percent in the first half of 2026, while President Javier Milei remains calm about his reelection prospects.

4 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 23 Sept 2026 · updated 43d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
0%50%100%56%11 Sept, 18:39 UTCnowAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Argentina’s poverty rises to 32 percent under Milei with more pain forecast · 25 Sept, 00:23 UTCBloomberg Markets: Milei Rejects Recession Talk, Says He’s ‘Calm’ About Reelection · 24 Sept, 17:40 UTCABC News: Argentina’s leaderless opposition struggles to unite against Milei's reelection bid · 23 Sept, 10:44 UTCFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Argentina's poverty rate climbs to nearly one in three under Milei · 25 Sept, 02:30 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
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The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 23 Sept 2026. ABC News published first, on 23 September at 10:44 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 30h 56m later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 25 September at 02:30 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? — the market puts it at 56%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 24 Oct 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if Javier Milei wins the 2027 Argentine presidential election, including any second round. It resolves to "No" if he does not win. Readers often mistake the deadline for knowing the results (October 31, 2028) as the election date itself.
  • Javier Milei — the market puts it at 59%, with $41 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 Oct 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Javier Milei wins the next Argentine presidential election. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific race. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of his current popularity rather than the official winner of the upcoming vote.
  • Above 1.8% — the market puts it at 85%, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 13 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate for September 2026 exceeds 1.8%. It resolves to No if that rate is 1.8% or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news story about poverty rates as the resolution criteria, but only the official inflation data matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. ABC NewsArgentina’s leaderless opposition struggles to unite against Milei's reelection bid56%
  2. Bloomberg MarketsMilei Rejects Recession Talk, Says He’s ‘Calm’ About Reelection55%▼1 points since the previous source
  3. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraArgentina’s poverty rises to 32 percent under Milei with more pain forecast55%
  4. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesArgentina's poverty rate climbs to nearly one in three under Milei55%
  5. Current odds56%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Argentina’s poverty rises to 32 percent under Milei with more pain forecast Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  2. Milei Rejects Recession Talk, Says He’s ‘Calm’ About Reelection Bloomberg Markets ·
  3. Argentina’s leaderless opposition struggles to unite against Milei's reelection bid ABC News ·
  4. Argentina's poverty rate climbs to nearly one in three under Milei France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Polymarket Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? 56% +1 $2k 24hends 24 Oct 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Javier Milei 59% $41 24hends 30 Oct 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Above 1.8% 85% +15 $8 24hends 13 Oct 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Javier Milei
  • Argentina
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