Above 1.8%
Implied probability 85%+35
24-hour volume$230
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves13 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 85% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Sept, 03:44 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 37% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate for September 2026 exceeds 1.8%. It resolves to No if that rate is 1.8% or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news story about poverty rates as the resolution criteria, but only the official inflation data matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 85%
- No 15%