Apple Posts Record Revenue Under New CEO John Ternus Amid AI Costs Hot: Odds moved 11 points in 24 hours
Apple reported record fiscal year revenue and earnings per share, exceeding analyst estimates despite warnings of narrower profit margins due to rising memory costs and Siri AI expenses.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg Technology, 4h 03m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 16:35 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 13:13 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 12:51 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 29% |
| 6 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 03:44 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 19:43 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 11:34 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 09:12 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 07:31 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 04:05 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 32% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 01:56 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 00:37 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 22:20 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 47% |
| 4 Nov, 14:08 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 13:31 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 11:54 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 10:44 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 09:21 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 06:44 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 04:51 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 01:39 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Nov, 23:30 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Nov, 23:23 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 36% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? respond.
The story so far
16 publishers have covered this in 39 articles since 2 Nov 2026. Bloomberg Technology published first, on 2 November at 09:57 UTC; Quartz followed 4h 03m later. The most recent article, from CNET, appeared on 6 November at 13:03 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), TechCrunch (major outlet), Quartz, Deadline, All Content from Business Insider, Hacker News, theinformation.com and 4 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — the market puts it at 32%, with $833 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. Apple must hold the second-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or assume any temporary ranking change counts toward the final result.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026? — the market puts it at 71%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. Apple must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on November 30, 2026, for the Yes outcome to trigger. The No outcome applies if any other company holds that top spot at that specific time. Readers often mistake current news about sales or temporary price changes for the final resolution data.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — the market puts it at 64%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Apple must hold the highest global market capitalization at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026. The outcome depends on the final closing prices of all major companies on that specific date. Readers often mistake intraday highs or news reports for the official resolution data.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple’s $1 Trillion Rally Leaves No Room for Error on Earnings36%
- QuartzApple stock's big rally leaves little room for error as it reports earnings36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Earnings On Deck After $1 Trillion Rally: Preview36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple’s Valuation Premium Confronts AI Jitters36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple (AAPL) Earnings: Live Q4 2026 Results, iPhone Sales, CEO Ternus Comments36%
- News FeedApple’s strong iPhone and Mac sales offset weaker performance in China36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Growth Decelerates, With China Sales Missing Estimates36%
- Bloomberg.comApple Earnings Meet Estimates36%
- The New York TimesApple’s Profit Grows 12 Percent Despite Component Price Worries36%
- DeadlineApple FYQ4 Revenue Tops Forecasts On iPhone Sales As New CEO John Ternus Steps Up36%
Show 29 later sources
- Bloomberg.comApple Growth Slows as China Sales Miss Estimates36%
- All Content from Business InsiderNew CEO John Ternus delivers an Apple earnings beat — but soft China and iPad sales36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Sales Slow Down, China Revenue Misses Estimates36%
- QuartziPhone sales lifted Apple to record September-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion36%
- The VergeApple set an iPhone sales record even without a new standard iPhone36%
- VarietyApple Services Revenue Hits New Record of $31.6 Billion, up 10%, in September Quarter36%
- Hacker NewsApple reports fourth quarter results36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyiPhone Duo Sales To Hit 7M in 2026, Predicts IDC Sr. Director36%
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Sales Meet Estimates, China Is a Weak Spot36%
- The Guardian BusinessApple posts stronger-than-expected revenue in first earnings report for new CEO John Ternus36%
- theinformation.comApple Sales Cool53%▲18 points since the previous source
- MarketWatchApple’s iPhone business is booming. Here’s why the stock is falling anyway.54%▲1 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Sets New Sales Highs in China Even as Increased Costs Bite54%
- TechCrunchApple may try to increase revenue by doing…something with third-party AI apps51%▼3 points since the previous source
- Times of IndiaApple CEO John Ternus gets his first report card, and one number is hard to ignore50%▼1 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Slides After Earnings38%▼12 points since the previous source
- MarketWatchWhat analysts are saying as Apple’s stock falls after earnings report50%▲12 points since the previous source
- Inc.Apple Just Had a Record Quarter While Everyone Else Is on an AI Spending Spree50%
- QuartzApple stock fell as rising memory costs sent its holiday margin forecast below expectations54%▲4 points since the previous source
- Inc.Apple Is Beating Every Magnificent 7 Stock. It’s Not Winning the Spending Race54%
- The VergeApple is all in on AI — its own and everyone else’s54%
- Bloomberg TechnologyCan Apple Defend Its Premium?56%▲2 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple's Upbeat Outlook Overshadowed by Margin Squeeze56%
- Bloomberg.comPower On Podcast: Apple Earnings & Siri AI Upgrade23%▼33 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Kicks Off High-Grade Debt Sale, Joining Issuance Spree28%▲6 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologySiri AI's Biggest Upgrade Yet + John Ternus's First Apple Earnings Call28%▼1 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologyApple Taps Bond Market for $7B as Tech Sells Off30%▲2 points since the previous source
- Inc.Apple Just Posted $114.5 Billion in Revenue. Now It’s Cutting Some Engineers’ Daily Spending Limits28%▼2 points since the previous source
- CNETApple’s Learning Curve: Every New Product Dropping Now24%▼4 points since the previous source
- Current odds32%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Apple Taps Bond Market for $7B as Tech Sells Off Bloomberg Technology ·
- Siri AI's Biggest Upgrade Yet + John Ternus's First Apple Earnings Call Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple Kicks Off High-Grade Debt Sale, Joining Issuance Spree Bloomberg Technology ·
- Power On Podcast: Apple Earnings & Siri AI Upgrade Bloomberg.com ·
- Apple's Upbeat Outlook Overshadowed by Margin Squeeze Bloomberg Technology ·
- Can Apple Defend Its Premium? Bloomberg Technology ·
Show 33 more sources
- Apple is all in on AI — its own and everyone else’s The Verge ·
- Apple Slides After Earnings Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple may try to increase revenue by doing…something with third-party AI apps TechCrunch ·
- Apple Sets New Sales Highs in China Even as Increased Costs Bite Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple posts stronger-than-expected revenue in first earnings report for new CEO John Ternus The Guardian Business ·
- Apple Sales Meet Estimates, China Is a Weak Spot Bloomberg Technology ·
- iPhone Duo Sales To Hit 7M in 2026, Predicts IDC Sr. Director Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple Services Revenue Hits New Record of $31.6 Billion, up 10%, in September Quarter Variety ·
- Apple set an iPhone sales record even without a new standard iPhone The Verge ·
- Apple Sales Slow Down, China Revenue Misses Estimates Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple Growth Slows as China Sales Miss Estimates Bloomberg.com ·
- Apple’s Profit Grows 12 Percent Despite Component Price Worries The New York Times ·
- Apple Earnings Meet Estimates Bloomberg.com ·
- Apple Growth Decelerates, With China Sales Missing Estimates Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple’s strong iPhone and Mac sales offset weaker performance in China News Feed ·
- Apple (AAPL) Earnings: Live Q4 2026 Results, iPhone Sales, CEO Ternus Comments Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple’s Valuation Premium Confronts AI Jitters Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple Earnings On Deck After $1 Trillion Rally: Preview Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple’s $1 Trillion Rally Leaves No Room for Error on Earnings Bloomberg Technology ·
- Apple’s Learning Curve: Every New Product Dropping Now CNET
- Apple Just Posted $114.5 Billion in Revenue. Now It’s Cutting Some Engineers’ Daily Spending Limits Inc.
- Apple Is Beating Every Magnificent 7 Stock. It’s Not Winning the Spending Race Inc.
- Apple stock fell as rising memory costs sent its holiday margin forecast below expectations Quartz
- Apple Just Had a Record Quarter While Everyone Else Is on an AI Spending Spree Inc.
- What analysts are saying as Apple’s stock falls after earnings report MarketWatch
- Apple CEO John Ternus gets his first report card, and one number is hard to ignore Times of India
- Apple’s iPhone business is booming. Here’s why the stock is falling anyway. MarketWatch
- Apple Sales Cool theinformation.com
- iPhone sales lifted Apple to record September-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion Quartz
- New CEO John Ternus delivers an Apple earnings beat — but soft China and iPad sales All Content from Business Insider
- Apple FYQ4 Revenue Tops Forecasts On iPhone Sales As New CEO John Ternus Steps Up Deadline
- Apple stock's big rally leaves little room for error as it reports earnings Quartz
- Apple reports fourth quarter results Hacker News
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 32% +11
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026? 71% −6
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 64% −4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Apple
- John Ternus