Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Implied probability 32%+11
24-hour volume$833
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$16k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 16:35 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 13:13 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Nov, 12:51 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 29% |
| 6 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 03:44 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 19:43 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 11:34 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 09:12 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 07:31 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 04:05 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 32% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 01:56 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 00:37 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 22:20 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 47% |
| 4 Nov, 14:08 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 13:31 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 11:54 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 10:44 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 09:21 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 08:59 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 06:44 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 04:51 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 01:39 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Nov, 23:30 UTC | 53% |
| 2 Nov, 23:23 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Apple must hold the second-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline or assume any temporary ranking change counts toward the final result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 69%
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