Andrew Scott Opens London Film Festival With AIDS Drama Elsinore
The actor stars as Ian Charleson in the opening night film, reflecting on the late performer's legacy and the ongoing relevance of HIV/AIDS narratives.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 83% |
| 10 Oct, 02:39 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 86% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 85% |
| 7 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Oct, 12:17 UTC | 83% |
| 5 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 86% |
| 2 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 90% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 92% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 87% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Andrew Scott respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 5 Oct 2026. Deadline published first, on 5 October at 13:00 UTC; The Guardian Culture followed 22h 29m later. The most recent article, from The Hollywood Reporter, appeared on 8 October at 15:42 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Culture (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), Deadline.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Andrew Scott — the market puts it at 83%, with $162 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Andrew Scott receives a nomination for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the release of trailers or news articles about his role as sufficient evidence for a nomination.
- Andrew Scott — the market puts it at 17%, with $115 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Andrew Scott wins Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the nomination list for the final winner.
- Elsinore — the market puts it at 29%, with $195 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Elsinore receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the release date or festival premiere for the official nomination announcement.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Andrew Scott at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- DeadlineBreaking Baz: Why LFF Opener ‘Elsinore’ Is A Triumphant Epitaph For An Extraordinary Man83%
- The Guardian CultureHamlet’s goodbye, the last of Leigh, Birmingham blues and a vampire in Vienna: 12 great films at the London film festival86%▲3 points since the previous source
- The Hollywood ReporterAndrew Scott on ‘Elsinore’ and Being an Out Gay Actor in 2026: “I’ve Been Able to Thrive in This Situation, and That Feels Genuinely Extraordinary”86%
- The Hollywood ReporterAn Emotional Andrew Scott and ‘Elsinore’ Kick Off a Starry 2026 London Film Festival85%▼1 points since the previous source
- Variety‘Elsinore’ Star Andrew Scott on Why Movies Should Still Tackle the AIDS Crisis: ‘The Shame Lies With the Governments Who Ignored’ It86%▲1 points since the previous source
- Variety‘Elsinore’ Producer Andrea Occhipinti on Bringing Ian Charleson’s Story to the Screen and His Personal Connection to the AIDS Crisis: ‘I Lost a Lot of Friends’86%
- The Hollywood ReporterAndrew Scott Welcomes ‘Heated Rivalry,’ But Feels “Troubled” by Those Who “Don’t Want to See” Painful Queer History86%
- Current odds83%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Andrew Scott Welcomes ‘Heated Rivalry,’ But Feels “Troubled” by Those Who “Don’t Want to See” Painful Queer History The Hollywood Reporter ·
- ‘Elsinore’ Producer Andrea Occhipinti on Bringing Ian Charleson’s Story to the Screen and His Personal Connection to the AIDS Crisis: ‘I Lost a Lot of Friends’ Variety ·
- ‘Elsinore’ Star Andrew Scott on Why Movies Should Still Tackle the AIDS Crisis: ‘The Shame Lies With the Governments Who Ignored’ It Variety ·
- An Emotional Andrew Scott and ‘Elsinore’ Kick Off a Starry 2026 London Film Festival The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Andrew Scott on ‘Elsinore’ and Being an Out Gay Actor in 2026: “I’ve Been Able to Thrive in This Situation, and That Feels Genuinely Extraordinary” The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Hamlet’s goodbye, the last of Leigh, Birmingham blues and a vampire in Vienna: 12 great films at the London film festival The Guardian Culture ·
- Breaking Baz: Why LFF Opener ‘Elsinore’ Is A Triumphant Epitaph For An Extraordinary Man Deadline
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Andrew Scott 83% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Andrew Scott 17% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elsinore 29%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Andrew Scott
- Ian Charleson
- London Film Festival
- Elsinore