Zelenskyy Attends Oslo Peace Talks Amid Standoff With Trump
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy meets with Norwegian and Finnish leaders in Oslo while holding talks with US envoys amid pressure from the Trump administration to reach a deal with Russia.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 30 Oct, 10:43 UTC | 12% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 16% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 12:53 UTC | 20% |
| 9 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 27% |
| 9 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 32% |
| 9 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 28% |
| 22 Sept, 09:07 UTC | 33% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Turkey respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 9 articles since 20 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 20 October at 12:48 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 6h 59m later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 21 October at 09:58 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), Deutsche Welle, BBC News, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Turkey — the market puts it at 12%, closing 31 Dec 2028. The outcome is Yes if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in Turkey before December 31, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake any meeting between other officials or a meeting outside Turkey for a valid resolution.
- Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Nov 2026. For the Yes outcome, Donald Trump must meet in person with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this specific meeting does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake any indirect contact or third-party mediation for a direct meeting.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Turkey at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg.comZelenskyy In Oslo for Peace Talks, UK to Defend Saud Arabia27%
- Bloomberg.comZelenskyy in Oslo for Talks, Iran Steps Up Hormuz Attacks, More20%▼7 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg.comZelenskyy Norway Talks, Hegseth Meets with Netanyahu, More20%
- Bloomberg.comZelenskyy in Oslo for Talks, Report: Iran Talks Not Near Deal20%
- Bloomberg.comZelenskyy Attends Oslo Peace Talks Amid Standoff With Trump20%
- Bloomberg.comZelenskyy in Norway for Talks, US-Iran Talks Not Near a Deal20%
- Deutsche WelleZelenskyy visits Norway amid Trump White House tensions20%
- BBC NewsTrump and Zelensky appear at loggerheads despite Oslo optimism20%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesUkraine talks: What progress after US envoy met with Zelensky?20%
- Current odds12%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Zelenskyy in Norway for Talks, US-Iran Talks Not Near a Deal Bloomberg.com ·
- Zelenskyy Attends Oslo Peace Talks Amid Standoff With Trump Bloomberg.com ·
- Zelenskyy in Oslo for Talks, Report: Iran Talks Not Near Deal Bloomberg.com ·
- Zelenskyy Norway Talks, Hegseth Meets with Netanyahu, More Bloomberg.com ·
- Zelenskyy in Oslo for Talks, Iran Steps Up Hormuz Attacks, More Bloomberg.com ·
- Zelenskyy In Oslo for Peace Talks, UK to Defend Saud Arabia Bloomberg.com ·
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Turkey 12%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026? No 6d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Zelenskyy
- Norway
- Oslo
- Donald Trump
- Steve Witkoff
- Jared Kushner