Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31, 2026?
Why it moved: −3 points at 10:32 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Ukraine talks: What progress after US envoy met with Zelensky? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 11:01 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 10:32 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 17% |
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What counts
For the Yes outcome, Donald Trump must meet in person with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this specific meeting does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake any indirect contact or third-party mediation for a direct meeting.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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