John Malkovich Eyes Oscar Nomination for 'Wild Horse Nine' at London Film Festival
The actor discusses his role in the CIA black comedy and claims awards campaigning is now essential for theatrical success.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 12 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 87% |
| 11 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 92% |
| 11 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 88% |
| 10 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 92% |
| 10 Oct, 02:39 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 94% |
| 30 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Sept, 13:12 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 04:25 UTC | 86% |
| 25 Sept, 04:42 UTC | 95% |
| 24 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 94% |
| 23 Sept, 17:12 UTC | 90% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch John Malkovich respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 9 Oct 2026. The Guardian Culture published first, on 9 October at 04:00 UTC; The Hollywood Reporter followed 15h 49m later. The most recent article, from Variety, appeared on 11 October at 14:11 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Culture (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), Variety (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- John Malkovich — the market puts it at 87%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if John Malkovich is nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if he is not nominated. Readers often mistake other awards or nominations for this specific Oscar category.
- John Malkovich — the market puts it at 41%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if John Malkovich wins Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for any award he might receive, but only a win in the Best Actor category counts.
- Wild Horse Nine — the market puts it at 79%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Wild Horse Nine receives a nomination for Achievement in Casting at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not receive this specific nomination. Readers often mistake general nominations or awards from other ceremonies, such as the Golden Horse Awards mentioned in the linked story, for qualifying criteria.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on John Malkovich at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian Culture‘Old-timey fascism was kept secret. Now you don’t have to hide it’: Martin McDonagh, John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell on Wild Horse Nine93%
- The Hollywood ReporterJohn Malkovich, Sam Rockwell Buddy Up for London Film Festival Premiere of ‘Wild Horse Nine’94%▲1 points since the previous source
- The Hollywood ReporterJohn Malkovich Says an Oscars Campaign “Is the Only Way to Get People to Go to the Theaters Now”88%▼6 points since the previous source
- VarietyJohn Malkovich Says the Oscars Race Was a ‘Different World’ When He Was Last on the Campaign Trail: ‘Now, That’s the Only Way to Get People to Go to Theaters’88%
- Current odds87%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- John Malkovich Says the Oscars Race Was a ‘Different World’ When He Was Last on the Campaign Trail: ‘Now, That’s the Only Way to Get People to Go to Theaters’ Variety ·
- John Malkovich Says an Oscars Campaign “Is the Only Way to Get People to Go to the Theaters Now” The Hollywood Reporter ·
- John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell Buddy Up for London Film Festival Premiere of ‘Wild Horse Nine’ The Hollywood Reporter ·
- ‘Old-timey fascism was kept secret. Now you don’t have to hide it’: Martin McDonagh, John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell on Wild Horse Nine The Guardian Culture ·
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi John Malkovich 87%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi John Malkovich 41% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Wild Horse Nine 79%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- John Malkovich
- Sam Rockwell
- Martin McDonagh
- Wild Horse Nine