Venezuelans rally for opposition leader's safe return and elections
Supporters of Maria Corina Machado demonstrate in Caracas to demand her safe return and new presidential elections.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by ABC News, 17 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 04:06 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 00:03 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 17:41 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 13:04 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 09:12 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 04:07 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 00:30 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 08:31 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 06:56 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 04:48 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 04:48 UTC | 7% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 27 Sept 2026. ABC News published first, on 27 September at 23:28 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 17 min later. The most recent article, from Deutsche Welle, appeared on 28 September at 06:28 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), South China Morning Post, Deutsche Welle.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuela’s land territory before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if she does not enter the country by that deadline. Readers often mistakenly count visits to Venezuelan airspace or maritime zones as a successful entry.
- María Corina Machado — the market puts it at 1%, closing 2 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado effectively serves as Venezuela's head of state by the end of 2026. The outcome is No if she does not hold that position at that time. Readers often mistake public rallies or political influence for actual executive power.
- María Corina Machado — the market puts it at 3%, with $518 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of a rally or election for the specific deadline when she must hold office.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- ABC NewsVenezuelans rally to demand opposition leader's safe return, presidential elections11%
- South China Morning PostVenezuelans rally to demand opposition leader’s safe return and presidential elections11%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraVenezuelans rally for opposition leader’s return and presidential elections2%▼8 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleVenezuelans demand opposition leader Machado's return3%
- Market resolved: No
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Venezuelans rally for opposition leader’s return and presidential elections Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Venezuelans rally to demand opposition leader's safe return, presidential elections ABC News ·
- Venezuelans demand opposition leader Machado's return Deutsche Welle
- Venezuelans rally to demand opposition leader’s safe return and presidential elections South China Morning Post
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? No 37d ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi María Corina Machado 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi María Corina Machado 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Maria Corina Machado
- Venezuela
- Caracas