Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?
Implied probability 2%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$82k
Liquidity$30k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 13:04 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 09:12 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 04:07 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 00:30 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 08:31 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 06:56 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 04:48 UTC | 16% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuela’s land territory before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if she does not enter the country by that deadline. Readers often mistakenly count visits to Venezuelan airspace or maritime zones as a successful entry.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 99%
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