Maduro pleads not guilty to US torture charges in New York court

The former Venezuelan president and his wife deny conspiracy to torture political opponents and Americans, calling the allegations false.

8 publishers · 8 articles · first seen 15 Oct 2026 · updated 22d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, 27 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	58%
18 Oct, 02:31 UTC	58%
17 Oct, 21:18 UTC	57%
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21 Sept, 07:28 UTC	62%
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12 Sept, 18:39 UTC	49%

The story so far

8 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 15 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 15 October at 16:04 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 27 min later. The most recent article, from Sky News, appeared on 16 October at 09:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), South China Morning Post, BBC News, Times of India, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Deutsche Welle, Sky News.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? — the market puts it at 58%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The "Yes" outcome occurs if Maduro receives no jail or prison time in his first sentencing for this specific indictment by December 31, 2027. The "No" outcome happens if he is sentenced to any period of incarceration for these charges before that deadline. Readers often mistake the resolution source, but only official U.S. court records or credible consensus reporting count, not general news speculation.
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — the market puts it at 72%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves based on who officially holds the position of head of state in Venezuela at 12 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake a person’s appointment date or media reports for the actual moment they assume power, but only confirmed, sworn-in leaders count. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly identify its head of state, the United Nations list serves as the final authority.
Nicolás Maduro — the market puts it at 6%, closing 2 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro is the de facto head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. It resolves to No if he does not hold that position by that date. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

15 Oct, 16:04Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Venezuela’s Maduro pleads not guilty to US conspiracy to torture charges51%
15 Oct, 16:32South China Morning Post Venezuela’s Maduro says new US torture allegations are ‘false’51%
15 Oct, 16:38The Guardian Nicolás Maduro tells New York court new torture allegations are ‘false’51%
15 Oct, 16:52BBC News Maduro pleads not guilty to new torture-related charges in New York51%
15 Oct, 17:25Times of India ‘False accusations’: Maduro, wife rejects fresh torture allegations in New York court62%▲11 points since the previous source
15 Oct, 18:11France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and wife Cilia Flores deny US torture charges as 'false accusations'62%
15 Oct, 18:55Deutsche Welle Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro pleads not guilty to torture charges65%▲3 points since the previous source
16 Oct, 09:00Sky News Nicolas Maduro and wife deny new torture charges as 'false accusations'62%▼3 points since the previous source
NowCurrent odds58%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Polymarket Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? 58% −2 $2k 24hends 1 Jan 2028
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

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Polymarket Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 72% $5k 24hends 1 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Kalshi Nicolás Maduro 6% $0 24hends 2 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong

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In this story

Nicolás Maduro
Cilia Flores
United States

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