Nicolás Maduro
Implied probability 1%−5
24-hour volume$43
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves2 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro is the de facto head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. It resolves to No if he does not hold that position by that date. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%