Venezuela Opposition Backs Exiled Leader Maria Corina Machado for New Elections
The opposition has renewed its support for exiled Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado as she petitions for new elections and her return to Venezuela.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 15:06 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 7% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 7% |
| 16 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 07:23 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 1% |
| 13 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 8% |
| 5 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 10:00 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 01:16 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 1% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 18 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 18 October at 22:41 UTC; The New York Times followed 10h 22m later. The most recent article, from The New York Times, appeared on 19 October at 09:04 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- María Corina Machado — the market puts it at 8%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of a rally or election for the specific deadline when she must hold office.
- María Corina Machado — the market puts it at 1%, closing 2 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado effectively serves as Venezuela's head of state by the end of 2026. The outcome is No if she does not hold that position at that time. Readers often mistake public rallies or political influence for actual executive power.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — resolved “Yes” on 25 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters and stays inside Venezuela’s borders before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if she does not do so by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story for proof of her presence, but only her actual physical location matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi María Corina Machado 8% +5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi María Corina Machado 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Before Jan 1, 2027 Yes 13d ago
The market favoured No at 61% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Maria Corina Machado
- Venezuela