Before Jan 1, 2027
The market favoured No at 61% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 95%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$38k
Liquidity$38k
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 95% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 32% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 41% |
| 22 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 31% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 33% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 36% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 35% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters and stays inside Venezuela’s borders before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if she does not do so by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story for proof of her presence, but only her actual physical location matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%