US-Iran Talks Deadlock as OpenAI Halts New Model Rollout

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 4 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 28 September at 22:24 UTC. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 29 September at 11:34 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 14%, with $239 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new nuclear deal with Iran before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake general economic resilience for an actual agreement on the nuclear deal.
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 13%, with $33k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027.
• Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? — the market puts it at 4%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if a written diplomatic instrument committing Iran to surrender enriched uranium is signed or formally adopted by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must explicitly require the transfer of uranium outside Iranian territory and cannot be conditional on future negotiations. Readers often mistake informal talks or verbal agreements for a qualifying written instrument.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.