US Economy Grows 3.4% in Third Quarter, Fastest Pace in a Year
Resilient consumer spending and artificial intelligence investment drove the expansion, outpacing forecasts.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by News Feed, 1 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 21% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Above 3.5% respond.
The story so far
10 publishers have covered this in 12 articles since 29 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 29 October at 12:31 UTC; Bloomberg Technology followed 1 min later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 30 October at 20:13 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), MarketWatch, Quartz, News - South China Morning Post, Times of India, Fortune.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Above 3.5% — the market puts it at 34%, closing 28 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that real GDP growth exceeds 3.5%. It resolves to No if the reported growth is 3.5% or lower. Readers often mistake the linked headline figure of 3.4% as the final number, but the resolution depends on the official BEA estimate, which may differ from preliminary reports.
- Above 6.0% — the market puts it at 62%, closing 28 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the annual percentage change in U.S. current-dollar GDP for the entire calendar year 2026 exceeds 6.0%. It resolves to No if that figure is 6.0% or lower. Readers often mistake a single quarter's growth rate, like the linked story's 3.4%, for the full-year result.
- 2.6% to 3.0% — the market puts it at 11%, closing 28 Feb 2031. The market resolves to Yes if US real GDP growth in 2030 falls between 2.6% and 3.0%. It resolves to No if the growth rate is outside that range. Readers often mistake the linked story's 2023 data for the final 2030 figure.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above 3.5% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News FeedUS economy beats forecasts to grow at 3.4% rate in third quarter21%
- Bloomberg TechnologyUS Economy Grows a Faster-Than-Expected 3.4%, Most in a Year21%
- MarketWatchU.S. economy grows at fastest pace in almost three years, third-quarter GDP shows21%
- The New York TimesU.S. G.D.P. Increased in Third Quarter21%
- QuartzEconomic growth accelerated over the summer, even as inflation stayed elevated21%
- Bloomberg.comUS Economy Grows Most in a Year, Midterm Countdown, More21%
- The GuardianUS economy grows faster than expected in report out just ahead of elections21%
- News - South China Morning PostUS economy grows faster than expected 3.4% in 3Q, driven by consumers, AI investment21%
- The HillUS GDP grew by 3.4 percent in third quarter amid AI investment boom21%
- Times of IndiaEconomy may grow 7.3% in Q2: Finance ministry21%
- FortuneA 3.4% GDP print hides a ‘haunted’ housing market and a September stall in the economy21%
- The HillFederal debt surpassed GDP for fiscal 202621%
- Current odds34%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Federal debt surpassed GDP for fiscal 2026 The Hill ·
- US GDP grew by 3.4 percent in third quarter amid AI investment boom The Hill ·
- US economy grows faster than expected in report out just ahead of elections The Guardian ·
- US Economy Grows Most in a Year, Midterm Countdown, More Bloomberg.com ·
- U.S. G.D.P. Increased in Third Quarter The New York Times ·
- US Economy Grows a Faster-Than-Expected 3.4%, Most in a Year Bloomberg Technology ·
Show 6 more sources
- US economy beats forecasts to grow at 3.4% rate in third quarter News Feed ·
- A 3.4% GDP print hides a ‘haunted’ housing market and a September stall in the economy Fortune
- Economy may grow 7.3% in Q2: Finance ministry Times of India
- US economy grows faster than expected 3.4% in 3Q, driven by consumers, AI investment News - South China Morning Post
- Economic growth accelerated over the summer, even as inflation stayed elevated Quartz
- U.S. economy grows at fastest pace in almost three years, third-quarter GDP shows MarketWatch
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Above 3.5% 34%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 6.0% 62%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi 2.6% to 3.0% 11%
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Wrong market?
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In this story
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Commerce Department