US Prepares Plans to Use 'Mother of All Bombs' on Iran

The White House and Pentagon have prepared plans to use the Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb against Iranian military sites if ordered by President Donald Trump.

5 publishers · 8 articles · first seen 15 Oct 2026 · updated 21d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Iran Nuke before 2027?

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	3%
18 Oct, 12:00 UTC	3%
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The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 15 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 15 October at 06:06 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 9h 40m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 17 October at 12:08 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Times of India, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.

2 prediction markets price this story:

Iran Nuke before 2027? — the market puts it at 3%, with $17 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome requires credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or global news sources to officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this confirmation does not occur within the specified timeframe.
Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 8%, with $12k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new nuclear deal with Iran before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake general economic resilience for an actual agreement on the nuclear deal.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Iran Nuke before 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

15 Oct, 06:06Times of India What is the ‘Mother of All Bombs’? The massive US weapon in focus over Iran3%
15 Oct, 15:46Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera What is the ‘Mother of All Bombs’ US could use in Iran?4%▲1 points since the previous source
15 Oct, 19:20CBS News Politics White House prepares plans to use "mother of all bombs" on Iran4%
15 Oct, 22:52Times of India White House prepares plans to use 'mother of all bombs' on Iran: Report4%
16 Oct, 09:27France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines US considers hitting Iran with 'Mother of All Bombs'4%
16 Oct, 10:21Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Trump rules out using a nuclear bomb on Iran: Why that matters4%
16 Oct, 17:27Bloomberg Markets Trump’s ‘Mother Of All Bombs’ Threat Unlikely to Hit Iran’s Buried Nuclear Sites4%
17 Oct, 12:08Times of India Why Trump's plan to unleash 'Mother Of All Bombs' may fall flat in Iran3%▼1 points since the previous source
NowCurrent odds3%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Polymarket Iran Nuke before 2027? 3% $17 24hends 1 Jan 2027
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What's wrong
Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 8% −4 $12k 24hends 1 Jan 2027
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Wrong market?

What's wrong

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In this story

Donald Trump
White House
Pentagon
Iran

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