US Airlines Cut Forecasts as Fuel Costs Climb
American, Southwest and United Airlines have lowered their profit outlooks for 2026 due to soaring jet fuel prices.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg Markets, 22 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 60% |
| 22 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 60% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 70% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 85% |
| 12 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 87% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Above 82% respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 12 articles since 20 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 20 October at 20:01 UTC; CNBC followed 22 min later. The most recent article, from CNBC, appeared on 23 October at 12:11 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), CNBC (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Quartz.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Above 82% — the market puts it at 60%, closing 27 Apr 2027. The market resolves to Yes if American Airlines Group Inc. reports a passenger load factor above 82% for fiscal year 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline as calendar year 2026 instead of the company's specific fiscal year.
- Above 186 million — the market puts it at 86%, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2028. The market resolves to Yes if United Airlines reports more than 186 million passengers flown in 2026. It resolves to No if the number is 186 million or fewer. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it depends on a specific date rather than the full year's total.
- Premium (3+ times) — resolved “Yes” on 22 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if any American Airlines Group representative says "Premium" three or more times during the next live earnings call or official broadcast, including the Q&A session. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, thinking any mention in news reports counts rather than only spoken words on the official call.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above 82% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg MarketsUnited Airlines Misses Estimates, Squeezed by Soaring Fuel Costs91%
- CNBCUnited Airlines slashes 2026 profit outlook on fuel prices, but travelers keep booking despite higher fares91%
- QuartzUnited Airlines is cutting its 2026 profit forecast as it expects fuel at $4.80 a gallon91%
- Bloomberg MarketsUnited Misses Estimates, Squeezed by Soaring Jet Fuel Costs91%
- CNBCSouthwest Airlines cuts 2026 profit forecast on higher fuel91%
- QuartzSouthwest Airlines is cutting its full-year profit forecast as fuel costs climb91%
- CNBCAmerican Airlines forecasts bigger loss in 2026 on fuel spike, plans to slow growth next year85%▼6 points since the previous source
- QuartzAmerican Airlines now expects a full-year loss as jet fuel costs outpace fares85%
- Bloomberg TechnologySouthwest Cuts Outlook as US Airlines Battle Fuel Costs85%
- Bloomberg MarketsAmerican Airlines Cuts Full-Year Outlook Again as Fuel Costs Climb85%
- AxiosAirlines' new normal: Higher fares, fewer flights60%▼25 points since the previous source
- CNBCFewer people are flying as airfare soars. Here's why airlines aren't worried60%
- Current odds60%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Fewer people are flying as airfare soars. Here's why airlines aren't worried CNBC ·
- Airlines' new normal: Higher fares, fewer flights Axios ·
- American Airlines Cuts Full-Year Outlook Again as Fuel Costs Climb Bloomberg Markets ·
- Southwest Cuts Outlook as US Airlines Battle Fuel Costs Bloomberg Technology ·
- American Airlines forecasts bigger loss in 2026 on fuel spike, plans to slow growth next year CNBC ·
- Southwest Airlines cuts 2026 profit forecast on higher fuel CNBC ·
Show 6 more sources
- United Misses Estimates, Squeezed by Soaring Jet Fuel Costs Bloomberg Markets ·
- United Airlines slashes 2026 profit outlook on fuel prices, but travelers keep booking despite higher fares CNBC ·
- United Airlines Misses Estimates, Squeezed by Soaring Fuel Costs Bloomberg Markets ·
- American Airlines now expects a full-year loss as jet fuel costs outpace fares Quartz
- Southwest Airlines is cutting its full-year profit forecast as fuel costs climb Quartz
- United Airlines is cutting its 2026 profit forecast as it expects fuel at $4.80 a gallon Quartz
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Above 82% 60%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 186 million 86% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Premium (3+ times) Yes 16d ago
The market favoured Yes at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- American Airlines
- Southwest Airlines
- United Airlines