UK economy grew faster than estimated in second quarter
Official data revisions show UK household income and GDP growth exceeded initial estimates for the first half of the year, boosting confidence ahead of the upcoming budget.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 4% |
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 30 Sept 2026. The Guardian Business published first, on 30 September at 06:17 UTC; News Feed followed 1 min later. The most recent article, from Quartz, appeared on 1 October at 12:40 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Business (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Quartz.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Stagflation — the market puts it at 4%, closing 13 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports an unemployment rate of at least 5% and a CPI-U 12-month percent change of at least 3.5% for December 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked August inflation headline as the deciding factor instead of the specific December 2026 data.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Stagflation at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian BusinessUK economy ‘slightly larger’ than previously estimated after April-June growth revised up – business live4%
- News FeedUK economy grew faster than estimated in second quarter4%
- The Guardian BusinessUK income growth revised upwards as markets hail ‘resilient’ economy4%
- QuartzU.S. economy grew 2.2% this spring, beating forecasts in final GDP count4%
- Current odds4%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- UK income growth revised upwards as markets hail ‘resilient’ economy The Guardian Business ·
- UK economy grew faster than estimated in second quarter News Feed ·
- UK economy ‘slightly larger’ than previously estimated after April-June growth revised up – business live The Guardian Business ·
- U.S. economy grew 2.2% this spring, beating forecasts in final GDP count Quartz
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Stagflation 4%
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In this story
- John Healey
- Iran