Trump Says Taiwan Agrees to Buy 30% of Alaska LNG Output for 20 Years

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 14 Oct 2026. Just In News published first, on 14 October at 01:31 UTC; ABC News followed 5h 55m later. The most recent article, from Just In News, appeared on 14 October at 23:45 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Just In News (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), Quartz.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 20, 2029 — the market puts it at 10%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the delivery of fighter jets for formal diplomatic recognition.
• Taiwan — the market puts it at 1%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays within Taiwan's borders between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not make such a visit by that deadline. Readers often mistake the arrival of military equipment for a presidential visit, but only Trump's physical presence counts.
• Above 153.607 million barrels — the market puts it at 84%, with $73 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Alaska’s total crude oil field production in calendar year 2026 exceeds 153.607 million barrels. It resolves to No if that production falls at or below the threshold. Readers often mistake the linked news story about LNG sales for the actual production data, but only official oil production figures determine the outcome.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.