Above 153.607 million barrels
Why it moved: +7 points at 00:29 UTC, after Just In News: Trump announces Taiwan's plans to buy US gas — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 15 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 95% |
| 15 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 94% |
| 15 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 89% |
| 15 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 88% |
| 13 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 81% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Alaska’s total crude oil field production in calendar year 2026 exceeds 153.607 million barrels. It resolves to No if that production falls at or below the threshold. Readers often mistake the linked news story about LNG sales for the actual production data, but only official oil production figures determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 4%