Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal Faces Legal and Logistical Hurdles
A Guardian investigation finds the agreement is likely to collapse due to legal and logistical issues despite Trump's claims.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 13:03 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 11:57 UTC | 2% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 26 Sept 2026. The Guardian Business published first, on 26 September at 10:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Donald Trump — the market puts it at 1%, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistakenly believe that any informal influence or temporary control counts toward resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
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- Kalshi Donald Trump 1%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Venezuela
- Nicolás Maduro