Machado Leads Venezuelan Presidential Poll as Dialogue Resumes
María Corina Machado holds a wide lead in the presidential vote intention survey while excluded from US-backed negotiations to restore democratic institutions.
Kalshi Venezuela 7% −1Venezuela
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Markets on Venezuela
Coverage vs. odds, last two weeks
How much the press wrote about Venezuela each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.
Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 37% |
| 29 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 37% |
| 28 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 42% |
Stories
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado returns from exile amid US warnings
María Corina Machado has returned to Venezuela after ten months in exile, prompting Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn that street protests cannot build democracy.
Kalshi María Corina Machado 6%Trump Renewed Calls For Venezuela To Become 51st U.S. State
The president cited oil reserves as he suggested the South American nation could eventually join the union.
Kalshi Before 2029 9%