One Year After Gaza Ceasefire, Palestinians Face Continued Strikes and Famine
A year after the US-brokered truce, reports indicate that Israeli military operations persist while aid restrictions fuel famine fears for millions in Gaza.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, 3h 48m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 9 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 07:33 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 10:05 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 13% |
| 14 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 12% |
| 14 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 12% |
| 13 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 13% |
| 13 Oct, 12:51 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 14% |
| 13 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 16% |
| 13 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 12% |
| 12 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 13% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 13% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 13% |
| 11 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 9% |
| 10 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 12% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? respond.
The story so far
9 publishers have covered this in 23 articles since 7 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 7 October at 05:41 UTC; Times of India followed 3h 49m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 13 October at 07:45 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), CBS News (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Times of India, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? — the market puts it at 12%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Hamas’s widely acknowledged leadership makes an official public announcement committing to dismantle its military in Gaza by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on a formal policy directive or credible reporting confirming such a commitment, not on informal statements or conditional plans.
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? — the market puts it at 12%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if foreign police, military, or security forces physically enter Gaza’s land territory for an official operational role by December 31, 2026. It resolves to "No" if such a deployment does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake maritime entries, airspace presence, or humanitarian missions as qualifying events.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? — resolved “Yes” on 15 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome requires that no qualifying military action occurs between Israel and Iran through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on October 15. A qualifying action is defined as a direct air or surface-to-surface strike impacting the terrestrial territory of either country. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles or strikes in maritime airspace for violations, but these do not count against the ceasefire.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraHow three years of Israel’s genocidal war have changed Gaza—
- Times of India3 years of Hamas attack: Scarred Israel, devastated Gaza & a Middle East no longer same—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPhotos: Three years of Israel’s war on Gaza as tent cities spread amid ruin—
- CBS NewsHow Israeli and Palestinian kids are coping 3 years after Oct. 7, 2023—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS military aid to Israel continues three years into Gaza genocide—
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesThree years after October 7 attacks, Israel's economy shows its strength—
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesDevastation in Gaza: Three years of war reshape the enclave beyond recognition—
- The HillWhat three years of destruction in Gaza actually looks like—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraHow genocide in Gaza followed Bosnia’s painful pattern—
- News FeedIsrael’s ‘scorched-earth’ ceasefire in Gaza12%
Show 13 later sources
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPhotos: Gaza before and after – a city transformed by war11%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesPalestinians struggle to find food in Gaza a year after ceasefire11%
- NPR WorldA year of ceasefire in Gaza through the lens of NPR's reporter11%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraA year after the ‘ceasefire’, Gaza’s healthcare is still collapsing11%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesHunger and malnutrition stalk Gazans, a year on from ceasefire11%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPalestinians still being killed in Gaza, one year into ‘ceasefire’10%▼1 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraIsraeli attack destroys building in Gaza one year into ‘ceasefire’10%
- Latest articlesHunger and malnutrition stalk Gazans, one year on from ceasefire10%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraGlobal pro-Palestinian protests one year after Gaza ‘ceasefire’10%
- The New York TimesWringing Hope From the Rubble of Gaza10%▼1 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPhotos: Gaza mothers endure endless lines as famine fears persist12%▲2 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraMaps show how Israel’s ‘Yellow Line’ keeps squeezing Palestinians in Gaza12%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPalestine weekly: Gaza marks year of ‘ceasefire’ with more Israeli killing16%▲4 points since the previous source
- Current odds12%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Palestine weekly: Gaza marks year of ‘ceasefire’ with more Israeli killing Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Maps show how Israel’s ‘Yellow Line’ keeps squeezing Palestinians in Gaza Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Photos: Gaza mothers endure endless lines as famine fears persist Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Wringing Hope From the Rubble of Gaza The New York Times ·
- Global pro-Palestinian protests one year after Gaza ‘ceasefire’ Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Israeli attack destroys building in Gaza one year into ‘ceasefire’ Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
Show 17 more sources
- Palestinians still being killed in Gaza, one year into ‘ceasefire’ Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- A year after the ‘ceasefire’, Gaza’s healthcare is still collapsing Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- A year of ceasefire in Gaza through the lens of NPR's reporter NPR World ·
- Photos: Gaza before and after – a city transformed by war Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Israel’s ‘scorched-earth’ ceasefire in Gaza News Feed ·
- How genocide in Gaza followed Bosnia’s painful pattern Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- What three years of destruction in Gaza actually looks like The Hill ·
- US military aid to Israel continues three years into Gaza genocide Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- How Israeli and Palestinian kids are coping 3 years after Oct. 7, 2023 CBS News ·
- Photos: Three years of Israel’s war on Gaza as tent cities spread amid ruin Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- How three years of Israel’s genocidal war have changed Gaza Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Hunger and malnutrition stalk Gazans, one year on from ceasefire Latest articles
- Hunger and malnutrition stalk Gazans, a year on from ceasefire France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Palestinians struggle to find food in Gaza a year after ceasefire France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Devastation in Gaza: Three years of war reshape the enclave beyond recognition France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Three years after October 7 attacks, Israel's economy shows its strength France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- 3 years of Hamas attack: Scarred Israel, devastated Gaza & a Middle East no longer same Times of India
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? 12%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? 12% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? Yes 22d ago
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Israel
- Gaza
- Hamas
- Palestinians