Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

What counts

The Yes outcome requires that no qualifying military action occurs between Israel and Iran through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on October 15. A qualifying action is defined as a direct air or surface-to-surface strike impacting the terrestrial territory of either country. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles or strikes in maritime airspace for violations, but these do not count against the ceasefire.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.